December 9, 2025

Realtor.com’s 2026 housing forecast predicts that home prices will fall in many U.S. cities even as mortgage rates and incomes stabilize. This article distills the key data from a recent CBS News report and helps entrepreneurs spot investment opportunities in a shifting real‑estate landscape.

Full Article

Real‑estate markets are always cyclical, but rarely have we seen as many forces converge as we do heading into 2026. A CBS News summary of Realtor.com’s annual housing outlook notes that home prices are expected to dip in 22 of the nation’s 100 largest metros, especially in parts of Florida and the Southeast. Mortgage rates are projected to average around 6.3 %—down from 2025 but still above the pre‑pandemic norm, and incomes are growing faster than inflation. For founders who have been priced out of hot markets or waiting to enter the rental game, the coming year could present a window of opportunity.

According to the report, typical monthly mortgage payments are expected to fall below 30 % of household income for the first time in several years. Existing‑home sales are forecast to rise to roughly 4.13 million, up slightly from 2025’s 4.07 million, while new home construction is expected to grow about 3 %. Inventory should expand by nearly 9 % as more homeowners unlock their “golden handcuffs” and list their properties. All of these factors point to a market that is finally moving toward balance. Prices won’t crater across the board, but neither will they skyrocket. Instead, modest declines in overheated areas and steady gains elsewhere will characterize 2026.

The biggest projected drops are in Florida’s pandemic‑boom markets. Cape Coral Fort Myers is expected to see prices fall by more than 10 %, followed by North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton at around 9 %. Other metro areas in Texas and the Carolinas could also see declines as supply catches up with demand. If you’re an investor with cash and patience, these markets may offer attractive entry points. Increased inventory means more negotiating power, and falling prices can translate into better cash‑flow metrics on rentals. But don’t confuse a 10 % drop with a fire sale. These markets are still up dramatically since 2019, and fundamentals like job growth and population trends will determine whether the declines last.

Entrepreneurs should also remember that real estate is hyper‑local. National averages obscure tremendous variation from one neighborhood to the next. Before you swoop in on a Florida condo or a Charlotte duplex, research local employment trends, school quality and zoning regulations. Partner with a real‑estate agent who understands investor needs and can guide you through everything from financing to property management. And be prepared for interest rates to remain above 6 % for a while. A good deal in 2026 may look different from a good deal in 2020, but the principles of cash flow, maintenance budgeting and tenant screening are timeless.

The forecast also carries implications for your primary residence. If you’ve been hesitating to move because you didn’t want to trade a 3 % mortgage for a 7 % one, the expected decline in rates to around 6 % could make a move more palatable. However, don’t move just because you think you’ll time the bottom of the market. Move because the house fits your lifestyle and your business goals. For example, you might need more space for a home office, or you may want to relocate to a region with a lower cost of living and a better talent pool.

In short, 2026 looks to be the year that residential real estate normalizes. For investors and owner‑occupants alike, that means disciplined research, realistic return expectations and a willingness to act when the numbers make sense. A balanced market is a far cry from the frenetic bidding wars of the pandemic, but for savvy entrepreneurs, balance can be beautiful.

Join the Trillii newsletter to stay updated on the latest breakthroughs in AI, Business, Technology, and Mindset.